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Open source Linux technology and .Net systems from Microsoft will continue to chip away at the dominant position of Unix operating systems in the server market, making Linux the major server operating system by 2009, according to a study by IT analyst company Butler Group.

Though Unix systems from Hewlett-Packard, IBM, and Sun will remain the server operating systems of choice through 2004, within seven years Linux and .Net will have fully penetrated the market, from file and print servers through to the mainframe, the researchers said. The study, "Server Operating Systems--Winners and Losers in the Open/Proprietary OS Market," was released this week by the division of Butler Direct in the United Kingdom.

Price Is Right

Due in large part to the lower cost of operation and the increasing quality of service, Linux will make significant headway within the next three years for file and print servers, either replacing Microsoft's NT operating systems on the same box, or as low-cost replacements of other systems, the Butler Group said.

Along with cost and quality of service, technology managers are looking for server operating systems that offer a more secure and efficient infrastructure as well as easier maintenance and deployment of applications, Butler said. When making purchasing decisions, IT managers want clear vendor road maps and adherence to standards, all of which will benefit the open source Linux, the Butler Group said.

Also on the plus side for Linux: It has the benefit of running on a variety of hardware, from low-end Intel servers to mainframes, and more software vendors are beginning to certify their applications for the Linux operating system, the Butler Group said. Also, some vendors, including IBM and Dell, are also offering Linux to customers themselves.

Opportunity for All

Even small businesses should begin implementing and experimenting with Linux in order to gain a skills base and knowledge in the open source server operating system, the researchers said. Such groundwork will serve companies well as Linux begins to replace low-end Unix and take a significant share of the market from Microsoft's Windows within the next three to five years, the Butler Group said.

The server market is beginning to require server operating systems that are small, simple, and meet the two main objectives of virtual (or distributed) server and resource management.

As a result, the industry as a whole urgently needs to begin collaborating on standards for next-generation server operating systems, to prepare within the next ten years for the arrival of grid computing and Web services technologies, including the expected emergence of wireless intelligent devices and appliances using voice and streaming multimedia, the Butler Group said.

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