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On the Go

Of course, smaller desktop systems will never match the portability of notebooks. And while notebooks are less powerful, they do have multigigahertz processors, 3D graphics boards, and high-resolution screens, all of which provide enough performance and features to replace most desktops. "When people are reaching the end of their desktop['s useful life], they are considering notebooks," says IDC's Kay. Stephen Baker, director of IT research at NPD Techworld, expects notebook retail sales to outpace desktop retail sales by 2004 or 2005.

Even gigahertz-crazy Intel recognizes that customers have a growing preference for portability over raw power. Though its desktop Pentium 4 processors may hit 4 GHz by the end of 2003, by March of this year the company plans to introduce a new mobile processor and motherboard architecture called Centrino Mobile Technology that emphasizes power conservation over clock speed. Even so, Centrino systems won't be pokey: Intel has not specified CPU speeds, but spokesperson Shannon Johnson says the new chip "will deliver better performance than what exists today."

These and other developments will help increase the battery life of notebook PCs. Howard Locker of IBM says that his company hopes, within the next 20 months, to produce Centrino-based systems capable of 8 hours of battery life--versus the 4 to 5 hours that IBM's current notebooks provide. Also this year, Transmeta will launch a new low-power processor, code-named Astro, that promises to complete twice as many operations per clock cycle as the company's current, relatively sluggish Crusoe processor.

Wireless, Wireless Everywhere

Another key element of Centrino is integrated 802.11-based wireless (or Wi-Fi) technology. Analysts expect it to be in virtually all portables by 2004. Aside from its continued growth in office and home settings, Wi-Fi is becoming an important component of wireless access for all the locations in between, filling the void caused by the delayed roll-out of third-generation (3G) cellular phone-based networks capable of offering speeds of up to 2 mbps. Several companies are piecing together overlapping Wi-Fi "hot spots" in order to achieve blanket coverage in major cities. "Our goal for the fall of 2005 is to be in the top 50 metropolitan areas," says Steve Harris of Cometa Networks, an enterprise put together by Apax Capital, AT&T, IBM, and Intel.

John Ankcorn, principal research scientist at HP Labs, predicts that future handhelds and notebook PCs will connect seamlessly to whatever wireless service is available, hopping from one Wi-Fi network to the next and even jumping between Wi-Fi, cellular, and Bluetooth wireless networks. To support devices that are connected constantly or frequently, Ankcorn anticipates, location-based information services will emerge.

"Imagine walking down the street and getting a consumer rating of a restaurant or a record store before you set foot inside," says Hank Nothhaft, CEO of Danger, the company that designed and provides Internet services for the T-Mobile Sidekick handheld. Nothhaft expects that wireless service fees will drop steadily to about $15 per month (from around $40 per month today) for 10MB of data.

It won't be necessary to have a PDA and high-speed data services in order to pick up information, however. By the end of this year, Microsoft plans to activate its DirectBand network, which uses ordinary FM radio frequencies to beam customized information to a multitude of everyday devices--watches, pens, wallets, key chains, and the like. The network and transmission protocols, combined with tiny receivers built by National Semiconductor, make up a new platform called Smart Personal Object Technology (SPOT). Watchmakers Citizen, Fossil, and Suunto have already announced plans to market SPOT-enabled models capable of displaying location-specific weather forecasts, for example, or traffic conditions on the road ahead.

Microsoft is betting that increased mobility will heighten demand for its .Net initiative, one of several forays into Web services that provide centralized information accessible anywhere from any device. The company envisions such scenarios as an injured person using a wireless-enabled PDA to authorize the transfer of medical records to a hospital. Of course, given Microsoft's inability to build a secure Web browser, the prospect of entrusting your personal information to the company may not be entirely appealing.

Even without Web services, you can access all of your computer's data if you carry it with you. Last year, OQO previewed its eponymous handheld PC, a Windows box that isn't much larger than an IPod; another company, Vulcan, is developing its similar Mini-PC.

But while some computers will start to look like handhelds, many handhelds will acquire PC functionality. Later this year, Intel will introduce a mobile phone chip, code-named Manitoba, that integrates the company's XScale PDA processor with flash memory and even some analog circuitry. Intel spokesperson Manny Vara expects that Manitoba-based "gamer's cell phones" will appear next year. Integrated chips will permit phones to become smaller and more power efficient--critical improvements in the hardware, since battery technology isn't expected to make great strides in the near future.

Intel's XScale chip, together with a new Microsoft platform called Media2Go, will appear in handheld personal video players (from Samsung, Sonicblue, ViewSonic, and possibly other companies) that should debut by the end of this year. "Think of it as snackable video for a bus ride, or 2 or 3 hours on a plane, or for a road trip with the kids," explains Intel spokesperson Bryan Peebler. Non-Intel chips will power similar video players produced by companies such as RCA.

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