Flashback: Our Best (and Worst) Guesses

1984

Wow, the initial version of Windows: We admire Microsoft's Windows 1.0, confidently predicting that it "should have a lasting effect on the entire personal computer industry." (Windows doesn't really catch on until 1990's version 3.0.)

1986

Good things come to those who wait: PC World founder David Bunnell tips his hat to Apple, saying, "Steve Jobs will introduce a super-high-end, low-cost machine that will... who cares? It will be wonderful." And he was right--12 years later--with the debut of the IMac.

1987

What about that pesky Web? We sagely tell readers about PC communications in 2000: "At the office, you'll be in command of a 32-bit, bit-mapped PC connected to other computers by a fiber optic LAN.... At home, your PC will be connected to the outside world by one or a combination of the following media: ISDN, cable TV, and existing analog phone lines; and possibly by satellite, FM sideband, or cellular modem."

1990

How mighty is the pen? In our August issue, we are gung ho about pen-based computing. In our story, "Will the Pen Replace the Keyboard in Your Next PC?" we predict the market for these PCs will take off in 1992 and very soon reach millions in sales. That didn't happen. Will it happen for Tablet PCs?

1993

Boy, were we right! In a feature called "The World Class Winners of Tomorrow," we proclaim that the age of the PDA has finally dawned with the arrival of the new Tandy/Casio Zoomer handheld, which barely beats the Apple Newton to market. We laud the $900 Casio Zoomer for its use of character-recognition and pen input capabilities. Although the Newton and the Zoomer did not last into the 21st century, millions of PDAs have been sold since 1993.

1995

Quick plus small: We confidently announce: "Within five years, CPUs performing up to ten times faster than a 66-MHz 486DX2 will be available." Zoom! We also predict that you'll be able to store 500MB of data on a device that is half the size of a PCMCIA card. Five years later, IBM comes out with its 1GB Microdrive, which fits into a CompactFlash card slot and occupies less than half the space of a PCMCIA card.

1996

On the money: Long before most of us had even heard of DVDs, Steve Manes in his "Is It World Class Yet?" column accurately predicts: "When it comes to consumer electronics...I like DVD's chances." Manes says he expects that DVDs will have a great future because the film and computer industries both see benefits to the format, and because it offers a relatively inexpensive form of storage. "I like cheap," Manes declares.

2000

But did it crash? In our January cover story " The Digital Future," we note that Intel is touting "the Ottoman PC, a high-concept home PC that packs a Pentium III system, a flip-up LCD, and a wireless keyboard into a funky footstool."

2001

Gee, plasma screens are still pricey: We classify 17-inch LCD monitors priced at under $1500 as surprising bargains, and our quoted experts say prices will tumble to $1000 and then creep back up in 2002. (Oops--by the summer of 2002, some 17-inchers sell for under $500.)