• PC World
• » Networking & Wireless

The number of wireless LAN (WLAN) hot spots worldwide will more than double by 2005, but the services are unlikely to reach "critical mass" until three to five years from now, according to a Gartner analyst.

Hot spots provide easy Internet access to users of notebook PCs and other devices equipped with IEEE 802.11 technology. But fans are frustrated by the limited number of hot spots available and the lack of consistency among billing systems, according to Gartner analyst Ken Dulaney.

Gartner's report forecasts 71,079 hot spots will be available worldwide this year, up from just 14,752 in 2002 and 1,214 in 2001. The number of hot spots will grow to 151,768 in 2005, according to Gartner.

Some 9.3 million surfers will visit hot spots in 2003, up from 2.5 million in 2002, Gartner says. North America, with 4.7 million users, is expected to top both Europe and Asia-Pacific this year. The report projects 2.7 million users in Asia-Pacific and 1.7 million in Europe this year.

Still a Stretch

Professional users of notebook PCs increasingly can use WLANs, and Gartner expects most notebooks will have 802.11 capability built in by 2004. But hot spot use probably won't reach "critical mass" for three to five years, Dulaney says. He defines the term to mean more than half of users are paying for hot spot access on a monthly bill rather than per use. For that to happen, users will need pervasive access to hot spots, a consistent login experience, and a single bill.

Coverage is good, but hot spots won't draw that critical mass of dedicated users until enough potential customers find they can walk to a hot spot or reach it by driving a short distance, he says.

In addition, they want to be able to log on to different service providers' hot spots, linked through a roaming agreement, without having to go through different sign-on procedures, Dulaney says. This poses both technical and business issues for the service providers, he notes. Issues include rates, who gets what portion of the revenue, and the quality of service.

"It's a serious problem. It's going to take some time to get sorted out," Dulaney says.

The good news is that not all hot spots will have to turn a profit before that happens, he adds. In fact, he expects most will lose money for three to five years.

"There are other motives for doing this which give [the industry] plenty of time to sort out the issues," Dulaney says.

Growing Pains

A public WLAN can benefit the provider, which may be a carrier or a business, in ways other than boosting revenue, Gartner suggests. For example, a fast food restaurant might adopt a WLAN to give its workers mobility and improve their productivity. It could use that same WLAN as a carrot to draw customers. A business might not set up a WLAN to make money itself, and sometimes access might be free, which saves the provider the cost of billing, he adds.

By the same token, a cellular phone operator might wrap an all-you-can-eat hot spot access service into a customer's monthly bill as an enticement.

The carrier "might not make a profit on that, but they get you as a customer. ... What they would do is make a profit on the overall package of services they give you," Dulaney says.

Unlike in the cellular revolution, Europe is behind the United States in the hot spot trend, according to Dulaney. Prices for access are higher there because the various parties involved, such as the service provider, wireline carrier, and venue operator, demand more money than in the U.S., he says. Also, billing interoperability is not in place, he adds.

A majority of the hot spots worldwide this year, a total of 50,287, will be in retail outlets, such as coffee shops, restaurants, and gas stations, Gartner estimates. In 2005, retail still will lead the pack with a projected 85,567 hot spots. Other popular places for hot spots include airports, hotels, train stations, and the public areas of enterprise facilities, Gartner reports. Some communities, such as Long Beach, California, also have set up hot spots to cover a whole city district.

• See more like this:
• hot spot,
• wireless,
• wlan,
• wi-fi,
• wireless,
• wireless lans,
• hotspot,
• gartner,
• research,
• internet access