While notebook PCs have received all the attention over the last few quarters, desktops aren't dead yet. Faster-than-expected growth of desktops is expected to lift the overall market more than previously thought, according to updated data released by IDC this week.
Worldwide shipments of PCs are now expected to increase 13.5 percent for 2004, up from expectations of 11.4 percent growth released by IDC in March.
In the first quarter, desktop shipments increased 13.4 percent as compared to the first quarter of 2003. The category grew only 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003, compared to the previous year's fourth quarter. The fourth quarter is considered the strongest period for PC shipments, while the first quarter is historically much slower.
Desktop PCs account for over 70 percent of all PC shipments worldwide, IDC says. Any notable increase in shipment growth for desktops will have a substantial effect on the overall market.
Business Decisions
As business customers start purchasing PCs in greater numbers, they are choosing desktops more than IDC had expected, says Loren Loverde, director of IDC's worldwide quarterly PC tracker.
The strong growth in notebooks over the second half of 2003 had led many analysts to predict businesses would replace their aging desktops with notebooks, but cost pressures continue to affect business PC purchases, he says. Notebook PCs are generally more expensive that comparable desktop PCs.
Notebook growth was still strong at 28.5 percent in the first quarter, IDC says. But notebooks grew at a 35 percent clip in the second half of 2003, showing that buyers are becoming more price sensitive and selective when it comes to notebook PCs, IDC says.
Businesses are buying notebooks, but they are selectively rolling them out to their users rather than opting for a wholesale replacement of their desktop infrastructure, Loverde says.
Western Europe and Asia-Pacific are expected to lead the growth around the world throughout 2004 as those regions begin to replace aging PCs. That replacement cycle has already begun in the United States, but should remain strong during the rest of the year, IDC says.
The value of PC shipments is also expected to grow in 2004, but at a slower rate as the industry continues to mature. Total shipment value for 2004 is expected to be $194.5 billion, an increase of 9.2 percent from 2003.
Ad Choices