I was born at the height of the Space Race, but in all my years I haven't seen anything as competitive as this: the race to bring out the next-generation video game console.
I'm not a PC gamer. The chair in my office isn't comfortable enough for me to play Madden NFL 2005 for hours. I'm a spread-out-on-the-couch, instant-on/no-boot-up, doesn't-cost-$3000, video game console kind of guy.
And I'm in something of a holding pattern.
I own a Nintendo GameCube. No shame in saying that, although according to researchers, its popularity now lags Microsoft's Xbox and couldn't catch up to Sony's PlayStation 2 if it ran like an Olympic sprinter on 'roids.
But I'm open to change. That's why I'm eager to learn what Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony have planned for the future. I hear none of these companies will be satisfied unless they can achieve ten times the performance of their current consoles. That would be impressive. And the experts are optimistic, too. In-Stat/MDR, researchers from Scottsdale, Arizona, say that 2004 will be a slow year for console sales--between 30 million and 40 million--but once the new systems are out, sales will rocket to more than 50 million by 2007.
So when can I get mine? Experts predict new video game consoles will come out late next year at the earliest. Sony has said it will show off the PlayStation 3 at the E3 trade show next May. Heck, I hear this link takes you to Amazon Japan's pre-order page for the PlayStation 3, but frankly I can't read it. Who is giving five stars to a product that doesn't exist?
Not to be outdone, rumors of an Xbox 2 demo at next January's Consumer Electronics Show have made the rounds, but Steve Ballmer himself has said there won't be a new Xbox within the next year.
Nintendo, meanwhile, quietly insists its new GameCube will come out when the other systems come out.
And what will they have in them? Here's what we think we know:
Microsoft Xbox 2: Rumors, rumors, rumors. Will Microsoft get rid of the hard drive to cut costs? Not sure. Will it combine PC and console features in one box to create a hybrid platform? Reputable media outlets such as CNN have reported it's possible. Word is the new Xbox will include several 64-bit, dual-core IBM PowerPC processors and 256MB or more of memory, capable of handling a ton of data. Such a system could work on multiple threads at once, vastly improving the gaming experience. Check out X-bit labs for an inside scoop, but bear in mind, nothing is certain.
Nintendo GameCube 2: Nasty rumor alert! Someone speculated that the next-generation GameCube will be little more than a repackaged Xbox 2, since Nintendo has said it will use the IBM PowerPC chip and a custom ATI video processor, like the Xbox 2. But the fact is, details on GameCube 2 are sketchy. You can assume there will be a link between the console and Nintendo's next-generation GameBoy, dubbed Nintendo DS.
Sony PlayStation 3: Sony has been pretty forthcoming about product innovations. Among the tidbits, the system will use a "Cell" processor, something Sony developed with IBM and Toshiba. The Cell is a multicore processor; in other words, it's like several processors that can handle data and graphics in one. Sony has also said it will incorporate Blu-ray Disc technology, a new optical format that can store up to 27GB on a single-layer disc, which would be key to producing HD-quality games.
Frankly, none of the details means much to me. The games make the difference. By all accounts today's Xbox is a superior platform to the PlayStation 2, but because PlayStation 2 titles are so plentiful, and sometimes first to hit the street, Sony still rules the console world.
That could change. You never know. For now let's enjoy the consoles we've got.
Brad Grimes is a former PC World executive editor. He now covers cutting-edge technology at the Defense Department for Washington Technology magazine.
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