Is XP's Fix Safe?

Longhorn to Arrive Short on Features

Since releasing Windows XP in 2001, Microsoft has devoted the lion's share of its development resources to the next version of Windows, code-named Longhorn. The company earlier this year previewed some of the new technologies, including a graphics system code-named Avalon that makes better use of today's powerful graphics processors; a file system called WinFS that is intended to speed data access; and (of interest primarily to programmers) the successor to Microsoft's .Net application development model, WinFX (see "Your Next OS: Windows 2006?").

But with SP2 siphoning unanticipated levels of development resources away from Longhorn, Microsoft had to choose between releasing the next OS with all the promised new features and releasing it in what Microsoft's vice president Jim Allchin terms "a reasonable time frame." With Windows XP already nearing its fourth birthday, Microsoft chose the latter. Longhorn will ship in early 2006 with WinFX and Avalon in place but without the vaunted WinFS file system. Microsoft says that WinFS will appear--perhaps as an extra-cost add-on--sometime after Longhorn ships.

It's hard to say whether the changed plans matter to the average Windows user, primarily because it's unclear whether WinFS alone would have delivered any benefits. "Until there are applications that take advantage of WinFS, what are you missing out on?" Al Gillen, IDC research director, queries. Corporations find Windows 2000 Professional and Windows XP good enough already, he says, and long lines of eager upgraders like those who embraced Windows 95 are unlikely. "A lot of people--Microsoft included--have been waiting for the next Windows 95. We don't see that scenario happening with Longhorn," adds Gillen.

But releasing Longhorn without WinFS may signal a trend toward software modularity that could bode well for PC users, Gillen adds. In addition to unyoking WinFS from Longhorn, Microsoft announced that it will release versions of Avalon and WinFX for Windows XP and 2003 Server in 2006, so you won't have to upgrade to Longhorn to benefit from those technologies. Gillen predicts that repackaging core features as bolt-ons will relieve some of the pressure on users to upgrade their entire OS--an undertaking many people are happy to postpone for as long as possible.