HDTV: What's On, What's Next

The Road Ahead for HD

FCC rules and HD movies should boost sales of sets.

When will you finally be able to see your favorite show--even if it's sumo wrestling--in high definition? Of the 339 national cable networks, at least one--HD Net--has already broadcast a sumo match in high def. But your favorite niche show may not be available in HD until the television industry completes the government-mandated (but much-postponed) transition from analog broadcasting to all-digital transmission.

Most U.S. broadcasters already simulcast; that is, they broadcast both their traditional analog signal and a digital signal on a different assigned frequency. The target date for completing the digital transition--at which point U.S. broadcasters must return to the federal government the airwaves they've been using for analog transmission--is late 2006. But few industry analysts expect that schedule to hold up because the regulations let broadcasters continue analog transmissions until 85 percent of all households in a given market can receive digital signals, either over the air or via cable or satellite.

Details about the equipment people will need after the transition--at minimum, a digital-to-analog converter box to get over-the-air broadcasts on an older TV set--are still uncertain. But the digital system will have much more bandwidth for programming, be it standard or high definition. Federal regulations don't require that broadcasters provide HD programs; the Federal Communications Commission hopes that the impetus will come from market competition.

Why Not HD?

A few hitches remain. For a while, networks might not be legally entitled to telecast all their shows in high definition, especially programs licensed from other companies. And not everything will go high def: Producers and programmers may not want to pay the extra production costs of HD, which can range from a trifle to 5 percent of the total cost for prime-time series produced by big studios to 20 percent for some live sporting events. (These costs cover such things as editing equipment and the conversion of existing film and tape libraries to high def.)

More Sets, More Shows

The chicken-or-egg problem--"How do you sell more sets without more programming? Why make more programs until there are more sets?"--is subsiding for HDTV. The Yankee Group says that 8.3 million U.S. homes had HD or HD-ready TVs in 2004, and that 57.5 million will in four years. Sales should skyrocket once Hollywood settles on a format for HD movies on disc.

Discovery, for example, plans to spend $65 million over five years on Atlas HD, a 30-program series of 2-hour HD documentaries about countries around the world. DirecTV is expected to offer new channels launched from affiliated Twentieth Century Fox studios. Even NBC's Saturday Night Live plans to go high def starting in fall 2005.

The Playboy Entertainment Group, which generates approximately 1500 hours of HD programming a year (shown exclusively on satellite in the United States), is likely to bump its HD production even higher--partly in response to overseas demand, which accounts for an increasing slice of Hollywood's revenues. "In certain Asian territories, they are already saying, 'If it's not high def, don't submit it to us,'" says Ned Nalle, president of programming for Playboy.