Weather, or Not, Maybe

Steve and Angela have a theory that everyone is at least a bit of a weather geek. Most folks know where to get any number of local forecasts online, but it's worth checking out one source that's already been paid for by your tax dollars: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service briefings.

What's available at weather.gov depends on where you live, but the info can include detailed forecasts, radar, satellite images, and all sorts of historical data, from precipitation records to tornado statistics. However, Steve's been digging around a bit and has developed a fondness for the site's "area forecast discussions."

Written by NWS meteorologists evaluating the available data and computer models, these discussions (not available for all regions, unfortunately) provide an unusual glimpse of scientists doing some on-the-job thinking aloud. You also get a sense of just how frequently that oh-so-confident weatherman on the local news is utterly bluffing. Steve quotes a passage from a recent bulletin (which is, yes, written in all caps, teletype-style): "WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY BROAD BRUSH FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND WAIT FOR MODEL SIMULATIONS TO SETTLE DOWN BEFORE TRYING TO ADD ANY DETAIL." In other words, "Our computer models don't match, and we're not really sure what's gonna happen." When was the last time your 11 o'clock news said that?

As you might expect, such discussions are by professionals and for professionals, but the terminology and abbreviations are in fact part of the charm. (If you personally can't tell your POP from your RA/SN, check out the NOAA abbreviations guide.) If you want the full picture of the weather's possibilities--and of how much art remains in the science of meteorology--don't miss this one.