Gates Still Roots for Tablet PCs

TOKYO--After failing to break into the mainstream of computing, the Tablet PC might have been written off by many, but it still has at least one strong supporter. Bill Gates, chairman and chief software architect of Microsoft, said Monday that he still believes in the form-factor and repeated a prediction that, with better hardware and software, it could still dominate traditional laptop PCs.

Gates showed prototype Tablet PCs at the Comdex show in Las Vegas in 2001--a year ahead of their 2002 launch--and at the show said in a statement, "It's a PC that is virtually without limits and within five years I predict it will be the most popular form of PC sold in America."

Slow Progress

It's now a little over three and a half years into the time period he set, and to date the Tablet PC has managed to do only marginally better than the now defunct Comdex trade show. A handful of vendors market Tablet PCs, but specialized markets such as health care account for a large percentage of sales. Other users, and those in business, have yet to take to the form factor in a big way.

Approximately 640,000 Tablet PCs were shipped in 2004, and this year shipments are expected to hit 1.2 million units, which corresponds to about 2 percent of the global portable PC market, according to a February report from research firm IDC. "IDC continues to believe that tablet PC technology will become an integral part of future portable PC designs, but adoption of the technology will be slower than originally anticipated," the report says.

"We need to keep investing, both in the hardware and software side, before it moves into the mainstream," said Gates at a news conference here on Monday. "It's not yet in the mainstream. I totally believe in the tablet."

Teaming With Toshiba

Gates praised Toshiba, with which the news conference was held. The two companies said they are broadening their relationship to include work on interactive videodisc technology and on future computing platforms based on the upcoming Windows Longhorn release, including Tablet PC.

"I think we see very good gains in the sale of tablets, particularly in the health-care area and the insurance area. What we need to do is get the form factor to the point where every student and every businessperson who goes to lots of meetings feels like they need that extra capability," Gates said.

"There will be a substantial improvement in the tablet software as part of the Longhorn release, and that's just one of many areas we are working on with Toshiba. And so I will again, without an exact date, predict that most portable machines will be tablets in the future, and I would hope that over the next three to five years, the software and hardware refinements will make that a reality."

On the importance of Longhorn, IDC agrees. The analysts say they believe the software will help make 2007 a key year for the form factor and will lead to shipments of around 4.9 million units. IDC expects 9.7 million units to ship in 2008, which will be about 11 percent of all portable PCs sold.