Shifting Services
Industry watchers expect cable providers to catch up as they deploy next-generation IP (Internet Protocol) cable networks. Dave Burstein, editor of DSL Prime, an online newsletter for the broadband industry, says new cable technology, which should be in use by 2007, could deliver as much as 50 to 200 mbps per household. But consumers will have little say in what next-gen broadband they get, or when it will arrive.
What will users do with all the bandwidth? With 35 mbps downstream, services such as interactive, IP-based television (IPTV) become possible. This connection could support two simultaneous HDTV streams, allow users to switch camera angles on, say, a sporting event--and still leave bandwidth to spare for voice and traditional data service. Enderle envisions TiVo-like digital video recording on remote servers, and sophisticated video security monitoring. Businesses could use PCs as terminals for content and processing power hosted online.
But such services face some challenges. Teney Takahashi, market analyst for research firm The Radicati Group, says the software and hardware to drive these applications are unlikely to be ready before 2007. And ABI's Arden points out that ISPs will have to overcome licensing hurdles that piracy-obssessed Hollywood studios are sure to impose.
In short, this rosy broadband future won't materialize overnight. "If you start going five years out from now, that's when you see the whole IPTV stuff kicking in, you see the new services that you just can't get today from the cable operators," Arden says. "Five years out you are going to notice a big difference."
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