Last Year's Predictions

About this time last year, I made a series of predictions for 2006. Let's look back and see how good my crystal ball was.

Prediction 1: More high-definition camcorders. Correct

It probably didn't take a rocket scientist to predict this, but I'm glad I was right: 2006 saw a slew of high-def camcorder releases from Sony and Canon, such as the HDR-HC3, the HDR-UX1, and the HV10. I also predicted that the prices of these camcorders would fall significantly, and again, I am pleased I was right: You can now pick up an HDV camcorder for less than a thousand bucks.

Prediction 2: More hard-drive-based camcorders. Correct

Sony jumped into this space with both feet, launching several camcorders that use hard drives instead of tapes to store video, like the high-def HDR-SR1 and the standard-def DCR-SR100.

Prediction 3: More integration with online video. Wrong

I predicted we'd see a camcorder that could cut the PC out of the equation, uploading video to the Internet without requiring a PC at all. We didn't see such a product, but we did see the new Pure Digital camcorder, which is close: It has built-in software that uploads the videos to Google Video when you plug it into a USB port. So we're partway there. Perhaps in 2007 someone will produce an add-on for a camcorder that uses Wi-Fi networks to upload videos.

Prediction 4: Video blogging goes mainstream. Correct

2006 was the year of the video blog, and I think such blogs officially became mainstream when Amanda Congdon (formerly of the video blog Rocketboom) got a job with ABC News, producing a video podcast for the news organization's Web site. Good for her: You can't get much more mainstream than that.

So that's three out of four--not bad. Here are my predictions for 2007.

Prediction 1: Other formats will outsell tape camcorders.

DVD and hard-drive camcorders sold like hotcakes in 2006, and I think that the trend will continue next year, with more people buying them than the more conventional MiniDV and HDV camcorders that use digital tape. I'll shed a tear about it myself, but it looks like videotape is a dying format, and I think that 2007 is the year when this demise will get serious.

Prediction 2: High-def camcorders won't outsell standard-def ones.

Though high-definition camcorders like the Canon HV10 are getting cheaper, they are still more expensive than standard-definition ones: Compare the $1000 HV10 to the $350 Elura 100. That low price means that standard-definition camcorders aren't going away.

Richard Baguley would like to see into the future just enough to figure out next week's lottery numbers. He blogs about camcorders and video at CamcorderInfo.com.