The Digital Future

Next Microsoft: Where's Windows?

Everybody loves to hate Microsoft. Need help getting in the mood? Think back to your first PC and recall the countless hours you've spent staring at Windows error messages since then.

For nearly two decades, Microsoft has almost single-handedly shaped our computing experience. Can any company wrest control from the giant from Redmond? We think so.

Your computing life today probably revolves around a traditional "Wintel" PC, but before you know it you'll have a host of clever devices that don't need Microsoft or Intel inside. This isn't to suggest that Microsoft and Intel will disappear, but the glory days of desktop PC profits may be over.

Instead, providers of Internet services and computing appliances--such as smart handheld devices that let you send e-mail, browse the Web, and conduct wireless transactions--will likely benefit most from this future computing environment. And in a twist of fate that Microsoft opponents will relish, the Gates empire isn't positioned to supply the operating system for many of these handheld gadgets. Who is? Our bet's on Symbian.

Get Smart Phones

While Symbian isn't exactly a household name, this company already packs enough might to make Bill Gates shiver in his oversize sweater. A joint venture among Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola, and Matsushita--four telecom giants that together supply the majority of cell phones in the United States, Europe, and Japan--Symbian is poised to corner the market on operating systems for smart phones, handhelds that look like cell phones but also let you send e-mail and browse the Web.

Assembled by Psion, the PDA leader in Europe, Symbian is busy improving and licensing Psion's EPOC operating system for handheld devices. EPOC appeals to hardware designers because of its low memory requirements and its user interface that is suitable for small screens, says Diana Hwang, IDC's research manager for smart handheld devices. Furthermore, thanks to an agreement with Sun Microsystems, these smart phones will also run Java apps and work with Java-compatible gadgets.

No Room for Bill?

In contrast, Microsoft's only venture into handheld operating systems, Windows CE, may be too hardware-intensive for smart phones. Today, Palm PDAs greatly outsell Windows CE devices. Research firm IDC predicts that smart phones will account for some 40 percent of the handheld market by 2003. That's a huge opportunity for Symbian, and a formidable challenge for Microsoft.

Symbian's other competitor, Palm Computing, could be a worthy opponent, especially once it spins off from parent company 3Com. But for now, Palm is working with Symbian, not against it--Nokia is making a pen-based wireless device that melds the Palm and Symbian operating systems. Look for it next year.