Upsets
For all its logic, one thing the LRMC system can't do is predict upsets, which is when a team that is higher-seeded or expected to win is beaten. In fact, upsets are often the most exciting part of NCAA matchups for fans just because they are so unpredictable.
While Sokol conceded that "if a team just happens to be playing well one day or is just more into the game, that's obviously not something we can take into account," one thing the system can do is point out teams that might be more likely to get upset based on its analysis.
For instance, Sokol said that the LRMC system ranked five teams in this year's tournament -- Drake, Connecticut, Vanderbilt and Georgetown -- lower than either the polls or the rankings. This indicates that those teams "are more likely to get upset" than some others, he said.
All of the those teams indeed lost to teams they were expected to beat in this year's tournament, Sokol added.
Having accurately picked North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA and Kansas to be in the Final Four this year, which team does the LRMC say will come out on top in 2008? "We're predicting Kansas to beat Memphis in the final," Sokol said.
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