Analyst: Apple's e-Textbook Gambit 'Just a 70% Solution'

Allen Weiner of Gartner saw Apple's announcements as a mixed bag. "In some ways, Apple is offering a unified version of what has been a cottage industry so far," he said. But because of that, it's success isn't guaranteed.

"Apple is riding into the educational ecosystem and offering a 70% solution," Weiner said. "They're saying it's up to you to figure out the remaining 30%. But that 30% includes some big, big issues."

Pricing is one, Weiner argued. "There will be books that cost more than $15, so pricing is still an open-ended question," he said. "$15 for all textbooks, that's just not going to happen."

He also wondered how committed traditional publishers will be to Apple's iBooks platform, noting that the biggest textbook makers have banded together to form their own e-book publishing venture, CourseSmart.

"Publishers are wanting to test every water," said Weiner, "but Apple is creating digital books that will not be available on all platforms. If I have a Windows machine, I'm left out. Publishers are not going to do long-term deals that are exclusive in platform."

Quality is another concern.

"They're opening the door for a wide range of quality," Weiner said, referring to the iBooks Author application. "Then there's the whole accreditation, certification and review process."

The lack of any mention of the approval process -- critical to getting textbooks into public school districts -- led Weiner to believe that Apple is leaving it to others to figure out.

Even iTunes U faces challenges, Weiner said.

"It tackles an entirely different part of the educational business -- portals," he said. "But moving from Blackboard, the biggest developer of portals that let teachers communicate with students, will mean a massive overhaul by the IT departments of colleges. I'm not sure how much they'll undertake that."

Apple did not announce any price cuts for the iPad, begging the question of how money-strapped school districts and parents were supposed to climb on board the e-textbook bus.

"[Apple's announcements] make the whole digital divide issue that much bigger," Weiner asserted. "What about schools and kids who can't afford iPads? What about parents who don't have a Mac or iPad? iTunes U [for example] will create a whole class of students and parents who can communicate with teachers...and a whole class of kids and parents who can't."

In many ways, Weiner saw today's news as only pertinent in the long term -- the very long term.

"The disruptive potential [to the educational ecosystem] is enormous, but long range," said Weiner. "College kids are incredibly lukewarm to the iPad as an educational learning tool. This needs to take root with kids who are in middle school now, who grew up with the iPad. That's when the disruption really happens."

Gregg Keizer covers Microsoft, security issues, Apple, Web browsers and general technology breaking news for Computerworld. Follow Gregg on Twitter at @gkeizer, on Google+ or subscribe to Gregg's RSS feed. His e-mail address is gkeizer@computerworld.com.

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