Windows Phone's future appears even more uncertain, as developer interest in the platorm has been plummeting, says a survey from IDC and Appcelerator. But there's good news as well: Mobile enterprise app developers like what they see in Windows 8 tablets, and it could supplant Android as the number 2 mobile OS in enterprises.
The survey from IDC and Appcelerator has only bad news for Windows Phone. Only 6% of developers surveyed in the second quarter of 2012 believe that Windows Phone will win in the enterprise, compared to 7% surveyed in the third quarter of 2011. iOS will be the winner, said 53% of developers in the second quarter of 2012, and 37% said Android would win.
It gets even worse from there for Windows Phone. The survey found:
Nothing on the horizon appears to be able to change that. Windows Phone sales continue to be anemic and Nokia continues to have serious market and cash flow woes.
However, when it comes to Windows 8 tablets, there's some mildly good news. The report found:
However, the report also warns that if Windows 8 tablets don't sell well, that interest may quickly vanish. It warned:
However, if Windows 8 is well-received, Windows 8 tablets could help Windows overtake Android and possibly iOS in the enterprise, it concludes:
This is why the Windows 8 launch is so important for Microsoft, and why the success of Windows 8 tablets is even more important than the success of Windows 8 on traditional PCs. On the desktop for now, Microsoft has the enterprise sewn up. Even if enterprises don't turn to Windows 8 -- and they likely won't -- Microsoft will still own the enterprise market, with companies using earlier versions of Windows.
But the enterprise mobile market right now is in the hands of iOS and to a lesser extent Android. Microsoft needs to grab a substantial share of it, particularly because if iOS locks up that market, enterprises might eventually start looking to replace Windows PCs with Macs.
So when Windows 8 launches, its success shouldn't be gauged by desktop and laptop sales. Windows tablets sales will be more important. If Windows 8 tablets don't sell well, Microsoft will be in for trouble, particularly given the unrelenting bad news about Windows Phone.
Preston Gralla is a contributing editor for Computerworld, and the author of more than 40 books, including "How the Internet Works," "Windows XP Hacks," and "Windows Vista in a Nutshell" and "NOOK Tablet: The Missing Manual." You can follow him on Twitter or Google+.