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The Next Generation

The exact future of viruses is difficult to predict, but they will certainly become more virulent and harder to combat. New technologies and software flaws continue to make the spread of viruses easier, and antivirus techniques must evolve to keep up.

Fred Cohen, the security expert who coined the term "computer virus" in 1983, says that the nature of viruses will continue to evolve. "It's unlikely that anyone will create a virus that will spread to every computer system in the world and destroy everything," he says. "But more-sophisticated viruses would be better targeted and would have much more longevity." He describes a future virus that--once it entered a system--would spawn subvariants, which would in turn spawn their own variants, each affecting the computer in different ways. Detecting and eliminating all of the offspring of such a virus would be difficult.

We've already seen one type of advanced virus that's bound to proliferate in the future. This new variety--the recent Bubbleboy and Kak are examples--comes embedded in e-mail text and activates without users' opening an attachment. A combination worm and virus, it contains HTML coding that exploits a vulnerability in Outlook and Internet Explorer 5x. Once you open the e-mail message, the code copies the virus onto your system--in the case of Kak, into the Windows start-up folder. The next time you launch Windows, the virus delivers its payload.

Recently discovered vulnerabilities in Outlook and Outlook Express would allow some viruses to go a step further--infecting your machine even before you read the message. No such virus currently exists, but a specimen like this could launch the minute you checked your e-mail. You can download a patch for the Outlook flaw from our Downloads library, but more vulnerabilities of this type are bound to crop up again.

The future of viruses, however, doesn't lie in destroying data but in capturing it. Srivats Sampath, president and CEO of McAfee.com, warns, "We're going to see an increasing number of malicious Web sites that will try to steal information from you while you are browsing." McAfee researchers say they've already received numerous reports of sites that auto-download a Trojan horse capable of sending information back to its author. So far, security companies have no solution to this threat. Some protective software will tell you when a site tries to download something to your system, but most firewalls can't yet tell you when a site is trying to siphon information from you. However, the latest version of McAfee.com's personal firewall and privacy service--which debuted in September--informs surfers when a site is trying to read files or take information.

Beware of Geeks Bearing Gifts

Experts expect to see more Trojan horses that use ingenious methods to get into a victim's system--for instance, a virus/Trojan horse that comes disguised as an electronic invitation or greeting card. Click on a hyperlink in the e-mail, and you're sent to a Web site where rogue code instructs your system to upload files silently to a remote site on the Internet. Experts also anticipate seeing viruses for the Linux operating system as a growing user base makes it a more attractive target for virus writers.

In September, the first virus for a handheld appeared--the Phage virus, which targets the Palm operating system. Though not yet in the wild, Phage infects and destroys all applications on a Palm and can spread when the user shares apps via syncing or beaming. Symantec's Moritz expects more assaults on handhelds in the future. "These are all fairly insecure platforms, and...I have full confidence that people...will develop new attacks [for them]." Antivirus vendors have already developed products to scan handhelds for malicious code.

While individual users and corporations face increased risks from viruses and Trojan horses, the biggest threat, experts say, lies in the potential for malicious code to be used in cyberterrorism. "Vladimir Zhirinovsky [leader of Russia's ultranationalist Liberal Democratic Party] in Russia has publicly stated that countries should...bring the West to its knees by using an offensive virus or Trojan [horse]," says Moritz. "To be honest, I'm surprised that we don't already see these things happening today. This very likely may be the next big threat--to have weapons of mass destruction based on [computer and Internet] technology."