Viruses: The Next Generation

Wednesday, May 3, 2000: From its origin in a computer in Manila, the Philippines, a new virus swiftly and silently wends its way through computer terminals across Asia, Europe, and the United States.

Forging a fiber-optic path across continents faster than you can say, "You've got mail," the amorous parasite lands in digital mailboxes waiting to spread its love. Within an hour of its release, workers in London wake to an expression of affection from their blokes--and before long, e-mail is brought to a screeching halt in the House of Commons, followed by the Pentagon, Ford Motor Company, and a number of dot-com start-ups in San Francisco.

The Love Bug has arrived, and everyone's got it.

The Love Bug, also known as LoveLetter, spread more rapidly and widely than any electronic virus before it, striking 55 million computers (infecting 2.5 to 3 million of those) and causing $8.7 billion in damage, according to research firm Computer Economics. By contrast, Melissa--the fastest-moving virus before LoveLetter--reached about 250,000 computers in March 1999. If you think that computer viruses are growing in speed and number, you're not imagining it.

In 1993, there were 3200 known viruses in the world. Today, there are more than 40,000--though only 200 to 300 of them are actively spreading, or "in the wild." Some 6 to 12 new viruses appear each day, and each generation gets sneakier than the last.

Viruses used to take months or years to spread, but current strains circle the globe in minutes via e-mail. What's more, the homogeneity of the computing world (with Microsoft's Windows, Word, and Outlook everywhere) makes it easy for viruses to infect millions of machines in one swoop.

But experts say we haven't begun to see the worst that viruses can offer. "If the virus writers ever thought through their programs," says Ron Moritz, chief technical officer for antivirus developer Symantec, "we would see much more virulent viruses that would really do damage." In other words, the supervirus-- like the oft-predicted Next Big Quake in California--has yet to materialize. But no one doubts that it will.

According to experts, future viruses won't need you to open an attachment or e-mail to begin inflicting harm; they'll simply activate when you check your e-mail program for new correspondence. We may also see cluster viruses that spawn miniviruses inside your system to attack various sectors and thwart scanning software. There are already cases of rogue Web sites that steal files or passwords from computers, as well as the first viruses for Palm PDAs (see "The Next Generation"). And viruses targeting mobile phones and Linux systems aren't far away. Eventually, viruses may be used as agents of cyberterrorism to attack government defense systems, steal data, and disable communications.

Researchers agree that the threat viruses pose is getting worse. Educating yourself and securing your computer with the right tools can help you avoid trouble. The experts advise: Disable macros in your applications; download patches for software holes; install a good virus scanner; and get weekly updates to the scanner to catch the latest culprits (for more virus prevention tips, see "Kill Viruses Before They Infect Your System"). Some virus fighters propose fully automating the inoculation process--a move critics say would give security companies too much control over your PC.

But true immunity to viruses doesn't exist. Just as it's hard to stop a crime before it happens, it's difficult to halt a virus before it damages at least a few computers. Some businesses want to make writing or posting malicious code illegal; but opponents argue that such measures would compromise freedom of speech.