Transmeta Extends Its Battery's Life, But What About Its Own?

Transmeta's Crusoe promises a lengthened notebook battery life, but now that the much-hyped chip is being cut short by IBM, some are questioning Transmeta's staying power.

IBM's decision to cancel a proposed Transmeta-based Thinkpad comes on the heels of laggard processor performance results reported by PCWorld.com two weeks ago. (See "Sony's Transmeta: Longer Life, Less Performance.")Later reports by other media outlets have offered similar findings.

IBM confirmed Wednesday that the company has dropped its plans to ship a ThinkPad with Transmeta's Crusoe processor in the fourth quarter of 2000. (See "IBM Cancels Plans for Crusoe-Based Laptops.") Transmeta officials declined to comment on the news due to the company's impending initial public offering.

IBM's decision to skip Transmeta at this time may bode ill for the upstart chipmaker, or it may just be a bump in the road toward success. It depends on which expert you ask.

Is IBM's Dismissal Not a Worry?

Transmeta may be displeased with IBM's decision, but it doesn't drastically reduce the company's chance at success, says Mike Feibus, principal analyst at Mercury Research.

"It's less of a blow than some people are making it out to be," Feibus says. The hype surrounding Transmeta and its code-morphing processors pushes everything out of proportion, he says. Transmeta's early notebook design wins from companies such as Sony and Hitachi weren't as important as they were made out to be either, he adds.

Sony shipped its Crusoe-powered PictureBook in October, and both Hitachi and NEC have announced plans to use Crusoe in notebooks that will ship first in Japan. (See "Transmeta, AMD Show Battery-Friendly Notes.")

Most vendors are still experimenting with Crusoe, and none has committed to using it in major notebook lines yet, Feibus says.

"It's still untested and unproven," he says, and these companies are simply taking baby steps with a new technology. "The fact that IBM's baby step isn't coming out this month is not a big hit [to Transmeta]."

Intel's Revving its Engines

On the other hand, IBM's decision may signify a very big problem for Transmeta, says Kevin Krewell, senior editor of Microprocessor Report.

IBM's decision seriously hurts Transmeta because the notebook giant's Crusoe endorsement lent credibility to the new processor, he says. IBM's decision to forego a Transmeta product at this time shows the company is more comfortable with other options, he says.

Those options are likely supplied by chip giant Intel.

IBM apparently delayed long enough to see Intel unveil processors designed for longer battery life and strong benchmarking performance on a standard platform that won't require reworking the system, Krewell says. Intel previewed an ultralow-power processor in October. (See "Intel Readies 1-GHz Mobile Pentium III.")

Intel moved remarkably fast to answer Transmeta's threat, Krewell says. Before Crusoe showed up on the radar, Intel was focusing on faster mobile processors, just as in desktops.