Comdex Preview: Can You Say Internet?

Bluetooth Appears, and Wireless Nets Get Mean

Another perennial up-and-coming technology that will show its face at Comdex is Bluetooth, the low-powered wireless networking specification for connecting small devices such as phones, PDAs, and laptops. A handful of first-generation Bluetooth products are at the show, but Giga's Enderle says he doesn't expect Bluetooth to soar this year. "Bluetooth won't take off until next Comdex," he predicts.

Enderle expects the battle between two other wireless standards--802.11B and HomeRF--to heat up, however. The 802.11B standard took an early lead over HomeRF by offering faster throughput speeds, while HomeRF supporters touted its telephony capabilities and lower cost. Then HomeRF won a court battle to be allowed to increase its speed--and the battle promised to become more interesting. Now at least one 802.11B vendor is expected to toss its own bomb--lowering prices at Comdex to be on par with existing, slower HomeRF products, Enderle says.

"It could be the swan song for HomeRF," Enderle says. Expect HomeRF vendors to argue otherwise.

PCs Persevere

The focus of Comdex may be shifting from PCs, but don't count them out, says analyst Bajarin. Some people call this the "post-PC era" he says, but really it's the "PC-plus era." The computer is still selling phenomenally well; Bajarin expects vendors to sell 17 million to 18 million of them worldwide next year.

But PC makers aren't resting on those high sales projections; they're working to produce the next big thing. Manufacturers are showing some of the first production-level Pentium 4-based systems and optimized software at Comdex. Intel is expected to launch the chip later in November. Keen observers may also find PCs featuring the latest Advanced Micro Devices Athlon processors, paired with Double Data Rate memory.

On the mobile side, experts are watching for Transmeta and its friends to show off more mininotebooks that use the company's controversial Crusoe chip. Both Intel and AMD are likely to show new mobile processors as well.

While the standard desktop and notebook PCs are holding sway at this year's show, at least one unnamed top-tier vendor is expected to shake things up with off-site showings of a revolutionary new modular PC, Enderle says.

The PC's main unit is about the size of a PDA, and it includes the processor, hard drive, and other basic PC hardware, he says. That basic unit then slides into different modules that transform it into a handheld, a notebook-size Web pad, or a full-size desktop PC, he says.

Reaction from analysts sworn to secrecy about the product has been very good, and the device could change the way we look at PCs, Enderle says.

Is Comdex Declining?

With more than 2500 vendors and 200,000 visitors spread out over more than 1 million square feet of conference space, Comdex hardly seems to be on its deathbed. But in recent years the show has fallen increasingly out of favor with some of the high-tech elite, Enderle says.

Vendors are struggling to justify the business impact of Comdex these days, he says. While the show was once crucial to spreading the word about a new company or product, today many vendors feel it has lost its impact and is just too expensive. Other trade shows such as the Consumer Electronics Show (also in Las Vegas) and PC Expo (in New York City) are becoming more important, he says.

However, while big names such as Dell and IBM have no presence on the showroom floor, they are in Vegas talking with the press, analysts, and other industry members. Because even large, important companies can get lost in the hubbub of the Comdex floor, many companies are moving their meetings off site. It's cheaper than exhibiting, and it gives companies the opportunity to be more creative.

For example, Dell is setting up shop to discuss its latest products and services at a little house not far from the show. It's Howard Hughes's old mansion, and after business is over one night, Michael Dell, his mother, and others plan to tear the roof off the place with a 70s-style dance party.

(Cameron Crouch and Tom Spring of PCWorld.com and James Niccolai of IDG News Service contributed to this report.)