Remember the scene from the movie Gladiator where the prisoners-turned-gladiators crouch in mute terror in the center of the Coliseum, waiting for a gate to open that would bring them face-to-face with unknown bloody horrors and almost certain death? That's sort of how I felt the last time I contemplated upgrading my computer's operating system, from Windows 95 to Windows 2000.

Okay, so I'm exaggerating--software developers on horseback rarely attack hapless users, for one thing--but I did feel a sense of impending doom just before I hit the Install button.

In that case, my premonition was correct. Although I didn't get bludgeoned with a mace, my PC and I were locked in mortal combat for weeks before we reached an uneasy truce that let most of my applications run smoothly again.

Why am I having flashbacks to software installation nightmares? Because a new round of the upgrade shuffle is starting for many people, with the recent release of Microsoft's Office XP suite and the coming of Windows XP.

You know what the marketers at Microsoft (and every other software company) promise when a new version of their product comes out: Richer features! Easier to use! Greater efficiency! Seamless, simple installation!

It would be easy to ignore the pitches if it weren't for the fact that they're often true. Software can do much more than it did just a few years ago, and these more versatile programs are often less complicated to use. Lots of installations go off without a hitch and result in happier PC users.

And even if you wanted to ignore all software updates, that strategy wouldn't work. To use your PC to its full capacity, especially on the Web, you need current software. Besides that, the rest of the world will upgrade even if you don't, eventually leaving you a hermit on your digital island, unable to communicate with people outside your den.

On the other hand, we've all heard the horror stories. Consider version 5 of the popular Easy CD Creator software from Adaptec spin-off Roxio. Some unsuspecting customers who recently installed the update on Windows 2000 systems found themselves either stuck in limbo during boot-up or staring helplessly into the blue screen of death. At press time, the company had released a patch to prevent the blue screen crashes but was still grappling with the superslow boot-ups.

According to Doug Wiesner, vice president of Michigan-based Professional Technical Development, a consulting firm that often helps clients resolve software installation debacles, the most common upgrade problems occur when individuals or companies upgrade their operating system and find that their older software no longer runs.

"Often these are mission-critical applications that just aren't compatible with newer operating systems," he says, "and although [our company] can sometimes retrofit the software, usually the long-term solution requires an exhaustive upgrade to the [client company's] entire system."

Software installations often fail because of hardware problems. If your system has only the minimum memory or processing power to handle a big, sophisticated new suite or other software, you may well find that the application runs--but more slowly than an RV trying to climb a mountain pass.

As Wiesner points out, this can be a big hurdle: "These days, users really have to consider their needs and to weigh the added functionality of the software against the expense and hassle of upgrading hardware, possibly installing patches and fixes, updating drivers, and dealing with whatever other unexpected problems happen."

So if there are perils to both upgrading and not upgrading, what's a cautious computer user to do? That depends. With some apps, like antivirus upgrades and virus definitions, it's generally a good idea to stay as current as possible, since the benefit almost always outweighs any potential upgrade trouble. But if you're contemplating an operating system or application suite upgrade, you might want to hold off until you've had a chance to do some homework.

Here's how you can arm yourself against potential disaster:

Make a list: Newer isn't always better, and not all upgrades offer the functionality you need. Make a wish list describing the features you'd most like in a program. Then compare it with the features provided in the new version. If the two lists don't have much in common, don't bother.

Make another list: Create a complete inventory of your hardware and software--including drivers and version numbers--before any upgrade. Click on 'Download' at Belarc and you'll get Belarc Advisor, a handy utility that will create an inventory of the hardware and software on your system. Use this list to confirm that you meet the hardware requirements for an upgrade and to determine whether you'll need driver updates.

Consider others: If you're thinking about upgrading an application like an office suite, think about the other users you regularly exchange files with, and make sure the upgrade will be compatible with the applications and platforms they use. For example, if an application uses a new file format, check whether it allows you to save your work in an appropriate older format as well.

Look for trouble: Visit the vendor's Web site and check for software patches, troubleshooting tips, and other fixes.

Learn from others: Visit online forums such as the Microsoft support newsgroups and research other users' experiences. Look for trends, especially those that affect applications you use.

Resist pressure: If an application that's working fine constantly badgers you to download an upgrade (Real Player, are you listening?), consider trying another program that may accomplish the same task with less harassment.

Clear your schedule: If you decide to upgrade, consider your workload before you start. Set aside an appropriate chunk of time during a period when you don't have a lot of impending deadlines, just in case of a calamity.

Save your files: Back up your system--especially important files that you can't afford to lose--before you upgrade. Also, if you're upgrading your operating system, back up your entire hard drive in case disaster strikes and you need to restore it.

Be patient: Even if everything goes smoothly, allow some time to get back up to speed after you upgrade. You may need to reinstall customized settings, tweak macros, and learn new commands.

Consider waiting: Many of the worst bugs in any new program are fixed within six months. If you can wait, consider letting others be the guinea pigs.

Buy preinstalled: It's often easier to get a new operating system by waiting until you're ready to buy a new computer. Your PC vendor will have done the testing needed to make sure the OS will work with your new hardware.

There's no substitute for doing your research. So before you upgrade, hope for the best--but prepare for the worst.

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