Will Napster Keep on Napping?

Is Napster merely asleep, or is it dead?

For a week now, users visiting the currently defunct song-swapping site have seen a notice informing them that service is temporarily suspended while the company updates its databases to support a new tune trimming technology. As Napster struggles to keep on the right side of the law, blocking access to copyright music until it launches its subscription service, the site's prolonged slumber has left many wondering whether it will ever truly awake, and if so, to whom.

"Napster, as it was known, is dead, has been dead, and isn't going to be revived," says Michael O'Neil, country manager for technology research group IDC Canada.

O'Neil looks at it this way: The Napster that rose to fame as the love child of free-for-all online music swapping will never return. In its place, users will receive a much more buttoned-up version. Now aligned with three of the Big Five record labels, Napster will become a pay-to-play entity with significantly reduced content.

Freeloaders vs. Bootleggers

That means that diehard free-music swappers, or "bootleggers" as Forrester Research calls them, will move on to the next big thing, pillaging the Net for whatever they can get for free. According to Forrester retail music analyst Carrie Johnson, bootleggers account for roughly 30 percent of users who download music online. This means the rebel audience Napster rode in on will most likely be moving on.

But there's still a majority of users--60 percent, according to Forrester--who are casual music downloaders and still up for grabs.

These "freeloaders," as Forrester dubs them, are usually looking for specific tracks and are slightly more inclined to pay. Because the freeloaders don't use the service as much, they might not even be aware that Napster is currently down.

"They are not so inconvenienced that they will leave in a huff," Johnson says.

O'Neil, however, figures that 45 percent of Napster's heyday users are moving on to greener pastures. According to February 2001 survey results from IDC Canada, 35 percent of surveyed users see Napster as a public library of free music and 10 percent say that they used the service because it was cheaper, making them unlikely to pay-to-play.

However, according to the IDC Canada survey, 44 percent of users are potential subscription service clients. This group is comprised of people who are looking for hard-to-find tracks or who want specific music that they aren't willing to pay for.

Figuring Out the Future

But despite these user breakdowns, Gartner analyst P.J. McNealy has another take on potential Napster users.

Napster's future, and the number of users it draws, will "completely depend on content and price," McNealy says.

And at this point, nobody knows for sure about either of those. While Napster naps, analysts and users alike don't know if the service will return temporarily free and heavily restrained, or in its subscription form, whatever that may be.

"Napster still has some equity," McNealy says, "but every day the service is down it will get smaller and smaller."

Forrester's Johnson notes that Napster still has a "fantastic" brand name in music, which will help it 1through the rough transition, but as far as user loyalty in the face of the service's seemingly interminable sleep, the online company has little time.

"It has a few days, certainly not weeks," Johnson says.

Meanwhile, Napster spokesperson Karen DeMarco says she has no official word on when the service would be up and running again.

"I wish I knew," DeMarco says.

So do a lot of people.