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The music labels may win the battle against Napster--forcing it to become a subscription service, or out of business entirely--but that fight may cause them ultimately to lose the war. Music-swapping sites are splintering and multiplying as Net music fans find alternatives, a study shows.

This fragmentation of users across different song-swapping applications will only make record labels' attempts to litigate copyright infringements more difficult, say analysts at Jupiter Media Metrix.

As the market continues to divide, it becomes "very difficult, if not impossible, to litigate against [copyright infringement] in the same way," says Mark Mooradian, Jupiter vice president and senior analyst.

The music labels have to follow through, or risk losing their rights--and their own opportunities. The companies are partnering with other sites or launching their own online music ventures, such as PressPlay and MusicNet, both expected to launch this fall.

They're also chasing some of Napster's competitors. For example, the major record labels have sued Aimster, another file-sharing site that piggybacks on America Online's Instant Messenger technology. Others, like the increasingly popular FastTrack (which also runs KaZaa), are international sites and harder to challenge.

As a result, the Recording Industry Association of America and its music label members are fighting battles on many fronts.

Still Drawing

Numerous studies show Napster losing traffic. Jupiter's most recent figures show the amount of time spent on battle-weary Napster plummeted 65 percent between February and June.

While users spent 6.3 billion minutes on Napster in February, during its heyday, that number dwindled to just 2.2 billion minutes in June, Jupiter reports. Meanwhile, the site's unique users dropped 31 percent over the same period, from 26.4 million to 18.3 million.

However, even with fewer visitors spending less time on its site, Napster still beats its emerging rivals. A recent NetRatings study finds that despite a shutdown for much of the past month, Napster remains the most frequently visited file-sharing site.

During the two-month period from May 15 to July 15, NetRatings finds that Napster dropped from 4 million visitors to 2.6 million, but it still dominates the online music scene. In fact, the sites of Napster's top four competitors boast only a combined 1.75 million individual visitors for the same period.

Audiogalaxy drew 707,000 unique visitors. While KaZaa.com saw a 142 percent increase in traffic, the site still only had 433,000 visitors. IMesh visitors grew by 26 percent, to 331,000, and BearShare's site grew 36 percent during the period to 274,000 unique visitors, NetRatings says.

"Napster's user base declined dramatically [because of the shutdown], but we still saw people downloading the software," says Jarvis Mak, a senior Internet analyst at NetRatings. "Their Web site is a place where people not only download the software, but also find news about Napster and the deals they've made." During the shutdown, many Napster users also ended up at the site to find out why their software wasn't working, he adds.

Numerous Rivals

While these Napster alternatives continue to see their visits rise, none is a clear winner. That's largely because there are so many of them, which is likely to be a headache for the music labels trying to chase down all copyright violations.

Fans of digital music are simply seeking other sources, says NetRatings' Mak.

"They are familiar with peer-to-peer services, and since they can't use Napster, they're seeking alternatives," he says.

If the researchers' reports are any indication, digital music-lovers may find that the more they spread out on the Web, the longer free music-swapping will survive.

The two most popular Napster rivals are Bodetella, a client designed for the file-sharing network Gnutella, and Audiogalaxy, according to Jupiter.

Bodetella maintained its 1 million unique users between January and May, while Audiogalaxy boasted 978,000 unique visitors in May, a 78 percent increase from March.

Jupiter also notes that contenders Bodetella, Audiogalaxy Satellite, IMesh, Lime Wire, Free Peer's BearShare, and Thirty4 Interactive's Napigator have been given a boost by Napster's travails.

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