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Think the slowdown in PC sales has reached its low point? Think again.

Worldwide shipments of PCs will fall this year, largely because of sharply lower sales of consumer PCs in the United States and Japan, according to a report issued by market analyst IDC.

IDC says that poor economic conditions worldwide were the main reason for falling sales, and says it does not expect the release of Microsoft's Windows XP operating system to have a stimulating effect on the market.

Instead of the anticipated recovery in the second quarter, consumer PC shipments in the U.S. fell 17 percent compared to the first quarter. Consumer PC sales in the U.S. this year will reach 14.1 million units, 25 percent lower than last year's 18.9 million units.

Sales of commercial PCs will also fall, by 5.2 percent to 28 million units from last year's 29.5 million units. This will result in total U.S. PC sales being 13 percent lower than last year.

Worldwide, shipments of PCs are expected to fall by 1.6 percent to 129.6 million units from last year's figure of 131.7 million units.

Bleak Future?

IDC says the malaise will continue into next year, with consumer PC shipments falling a further 17.8 percent in 2002, and commercial PC shipments showing small growth of 2.8 percent. Overall, IDC expects U.S. PC shipments in 2002 to reach 40.4 million, 17 percent lower than in 2000. Even in 2003, the overall number of PCs sold in the U.S. will only just be greater than in 1999, IDC says.

Outside the U.S., sales of consumer PCs will be flat this year at 30 million, after recording 39 percent growth from 1999 to 2000. Sales of commercial PCs will rise by 7.8 percent outside the U.S. this year.

Sales growth in the commercial sector is slow because there is a large base of fairly powerful computers installed and a relative lack of processor-hungry applications, so that many businesses are postponing PC upgrades and new purchases, IDC said. The worldwide PC market will rebound next year, thanks to sales in international markets, and grow 6.9 percent to a total of 138.6 million units, IDC said.

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