Full Disclosure: 2002--What Will Not Be

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Pundits do a consistently lousy job of handicapping the future, even when that future is simply the year ahead. So every now and then I consult Elsie Bee, a perennially in-beta Liquid Crystal Ball under development in a secret lab near Redmond, Washington. Thus far, its artificial intelligence is unblemished: Whatever it predicts is guaranteed not to occur for at least a year. So, for the next 12 months, you can rest assured that the following breakthroughs are about as likely to happen as a Windows price drop.

New computers will usher in an era of incredible productivity. Thanks to the confluence of several new technologies, you will never see the hourglass again--or endure even moderately annoying crashes. Diagnostic programs will fix hardware problems before you're aware that you have them. Never again will you find yourself wasting two days on the phone trying to fix a program that saves you 10 minutes every century!

Downloading movies at home will become a national craze. Why head out to Blockbuster for a high-quality DVD when you can download the movie at one-tenth the resolution without moving from the comfort of your home office? Best of all, it will cost only one thin dime for you to see at home the same first-run feature that's playing right now in the mall!

Spam will disappear. Thanks to aggressive educational efforts disseminated over the Internet, no one will bother replying to e-mailed porn links or million-dollar-a-month work-at-home offers, and spammers will give up in frustration. Just in case they return, surprisingly savvy filter software will distinguish between junk mail and the witty jokes and chain letters that arrive from your favorite "reply all" uncle.

Cell phones will sound better than wired ones. Connections will improve so much that you'll never again hear the dreaded phrase "Are you calling on a cell phone?" Better still, ubiquitous, dirt-cheap high-speed data services will let you watch high-res sporting events on your handset.

Customer service will reach new heights. Despite the tough economy, businesses will recognize the competitive need for prompt, efficient support. That's why they'll staff up with enough well-trained Ph.D.s to answer the phone in seconds and solve every problem in less than a minute. Even broadband providers will join this service-first bandwagon!

Privacy will take priority over mundane business concerns. Companies making money by selling your name and preferences without your permission? That's so dot-com era. Crackdowns by the formerly lax consumer credit industry will ensure that identity theft becomes a thing of the past; you may even have to use a thumbprint sensor to order shampoo over the Web.

Microsoft will stop overhyping its products and misrepresenting its behavior. Shy company spokespeople will say things like "This new product is at most a modest improvement over earlier versions." Steve Ballmer will meekly recant his outrageous claim that Microsoft has never told PC manufacturers what they can and can't ship with Windows. And in a keynote speech at one convention or other, Bill Gates will announce, "The only reason we're including this extraneous feature in our operating system is to crush our competition. You got a problem with that?"