Comdex Report: Notebooks Keep Evolving in 2002
Watch for portable PCs to get faster chips, better graphics, more connectivity, and maybe a new look.
Tom Mainelli, PCWorld.com
LAS VEGAS -- Notebook buyers looking ahead to 2002 can expect better processors, cooler graphics, built-in wireless connectivity, and a few radical new designs.
Processors are always a hot topic with buyers. The talk at Comdex is that those buyers should be pleased next year, with all three major chip vendors preparing new products.
Of particular interest from Intel: the transition from mobile Pentium III M to the mobile Pentium 4 chip, expected sometime in the first half of next year. In addition to the new chip, which will launch at 1.5 GHz, Intel's supporting 845MP chip set will support DDR memory, too.
Intel is offering a peek at the mobile P4 running on a specially designed motherboard here at Comdex. The demonstration, which includes a rather sizeable heat sink and fan over the processor, shows the potential difficulty of squeezing the hot-running unit into the confines of a notebook.
"We all want the mobile P4," says Hillary Glann, marketing manager for Hewlett-Packard's mobile computing division. "But heat dissipation is tough in this form factor. The P4 is bigger, faster, and hotter."
Intel will also continue to offer faster low-voltage components geared toward smaller notebooks for users who demand longer battery runtimes, says Don MacDonald, director of marketing for the Intel Mobile Group.
By 2003 Intel plans to launch a chip code-named Banias, which it is designing from the ground up for use in notebooks. It's the first time an Intel mobile chip won't result from tweaking an existing desktop processor. Banias will have advanced power-saving features and other hush-hush capabilities, MacDonald says.
Competitors Rally
Intel's competitors will continue to offer new options in the coming year, as well. Focusing on performance is Advanced Micro Devices; on the power-saving side, Transmeta.
AMD announced two new mobile processors at Comdex: a 1.2-GHz Athlon 4 and a 950-MHz Mobile Duron processor. Expect more speed bumps down the road, as well as a performance-enhancing die shrink from 0.18 micron to 0.13 micron sometime in the first half of next year, says Martin Booth, AMD product marketing manager for the computational products group. That first 0.13-micron chip is code-named Thoroughbred.
Plus, AMD's PowerNow technology, which helps save battery life by raising and lowering the chip's frequency, is now built into Microsoft Windows XP. Letting the operating system communicate with the chip is more efficient, Booth says. "Microsoft [is] using a different algorithm that should provide some additional battery savings," he adds.
Meanwhile, Transmeta is still working to launch the oft-delayed Crusoe 5800. Beyond that, the company is pinning its future on two new low-power mobile processors due out next year.
The Crusoe TM 6000 is due in the second half of the year, and it's essentially a PC on a chip, incorporating many of the features typically on the motherboard directly on the CPU, says David Ditzel, vice chair and chief technology officer for Transmeta.
Those features includes an integrated north bridge and south bridge, which connect the processor with input/output devices as well as the front-side bus, the USB controller, and the unified memory architecture for integrated graphics. Putting all those features on a single chip requires about one-third the board space of previous Crusoe packages, and the Crusoe TM 6000 will use less power than today's lowest-power chips, Ditzel says.
Transmeta is targeting the Crusoe 6000 at value-priced notebooks, but the company will also unveil an as-yet-unnamed chip next year to replace its current 5600 and 5800. It's based on a new design and geared toward the ultra-portable notebook market, but Transmeta is offering few other details about the chip.
What About Graphics?
For years, notebook users lamented the poor graphics on their machines, but that's changing. Last year, desktop graphics giant Nvidia launched its first mobile graphics product, and at Comdex the company announced a follow-up code-named NV17M. Featuring improved graphics and new power-saving technologies, the new product has executives from Nvidia launch partner Toshiba eager to implement the graphics chip in products early next year.
"It's going to be a home stereo, DVD player, and game machine all wrapped up into one portable," says Carl Pinto, director of Toshiba's marketing, portable product marketing computer systems group, of the new product that will use the NV17M.
Over at ATI, one of the leading portable graphics providers, they're eyeing Nvidia's move into the notebook market, Pinto says. That company is also gearing up newer, faster products to stay competitive, he says.
"Nvidia and ATI are making it possible to offer desktop-quality graphics in notebooks," he says.
Wireless Connectivity
Notebook vendors love faster processors and better graphics, but the continued hot topic for next year is wireless connectivity.
"In a general sense, clearly wireless is a huge area," says Matthew Wagner, a product marketing manager at Compaq. "Notebooks won't just be for computing, but for communicating."
Compaq has already built in the ability to add 802.11b or Bluetooth connectivity to many of its notebooks via its MultiPort technology, which lets users install modules to support the standard they want to use.
WinBook Marketing Manager Ed Lukens says his company's research shows most of his customers want Wi-Fi (802.11b) built in, and they want it now.
Despite some security issues, 802.11b is clearly the wireless networking technology of choice. Bluetooth, on the other hand, seems to be falling out of favor. While several vendors continue to say they'll offer the standard, others are taking a pass.
Gateway has turned away from offering built-in Bluetooth capabilities, says Mike Stinson, vice president of mobile products. He wonders whether the technology will ever take off. It missed its window, he says.
Let's Go Convertible
Microsoft's push for Tablet PCs received plenty of ink at this year's show, and most of the major notebook vendors plan to offer some type of unit late next year.
Hewlett-Packard takes the idea one step further, however, with an interesting concept: a PC that converts from a notebook to a presentation device to a tablet to a desktop display.
The unit starts off as a typical desktop-replacement notebook, with a massive 15-inch display. Hit a release, and the display can swivel 180 degrees. With the display and speakers facing outward, and keyboard facing the user, the unit becomes a handy presentation device. From there, you can fold down the display over the keyboard, creating a giant tablet PC. With a touch-sensitive screen and the right operating system, the unit could perform the same tasks as future stand-alone tablet PCs.
Keeping the unit locked in the tablet position, you can insert it into a snazzy upright docking station complete with a wireless keyboard, mouse, and ports to create a desktop PC with a 15-inch flat panel display. And for the final touch, the display can be swivelled from landscape to portrait view. The company hasn't committed to the project yet, says HP's Glann, but the early response has been positive, she says.
Turns out some of tomorrow's most interesting notebooks may not look much like notebooks at all.
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