The vultures are already circling around Microsoft's Windows Phone 7, little more than a month after the first handsets went on sale in the U.S. Phone pundits cite the tepid 40,000 unit first-day sales as a bad sign. And Microsoft is inviting the negative publicity by withholding specific sales figures.
While some of the commentary can be characterized as coming from cynics expecting a Microsoft fail, an analysis of the smartphone market by Troy Wolverton in the San Jose Mercury News drew my attention. Reporting on the D: Dive Into Mobile conference last week in San Francisco, Wolverton has concluded that it's going to be Google Android and Apple iPhone/iPad and everyone else languishing in the back of the pack. In an interview at the conference with the Wall Street Journal's Walt Mossberg and Kara Swisher, Microsoft senior vice president Joe Belfiore again evaded the questions about sales figures. But when asked for an example of a feature Phone 7 has that others don't, Belfiore offered that you can take a picture without unlocking the device. Nice, but not a game changer, Wolverton noted, and I agree. Wolverton was similarly unimpressed with the prospects of RIM/BlackBerry and HP with Palm making any headway against Apple and Android.