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Multimedia Messaging Service is in danger of becoming another over-hyped technology like WAP, and telecommunications companies must reassess their predictions of how much extra revenue it will bring, according to a report from industry research group Wireless World Forum.

From talking to "key executives" among its 3,000 industry members, Wireless World Forum, also known as W2F, in London, predicts that MMS will be worth $5.8 billion across 16 key markets: Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the U.K., and the U.S.

Reality Check

That figure is about 80 percent lower than the predictions being quoted by many industry analysts, W2F says in a statement. Current industry analysis is predicting that 20 billion MMS messages will be sent per month within the next two years. The real figure will be closer to 200 million, it says.

"We went into this looking for the foundations of the hype, and managed to trace most of it back to statements from the people furthest from the consumer--the infrastructure providers," says Josh Dhaliwal, executive partner of W2F.

"In a saturated market they can't sell any more SMS products and so they have to push new services. But they're marketing the features, not the benefits to the consumer," he says.

Dangers of Hype

Handset manufacturers, too, see lengthening renewal times and are keen to tempt operators with new features, Dhaliwal says.

"We're not saying that MMS won't be a success, but it won't replace SMS. It won't be used for communication, it's more about entertainment," Dhaliwal says.

W2F knows what it's talking about when it talks about the dangers of hype. Until establishing it a year ago, its founders ran an online messaging forum called the WAP Group. WAP technology was heavily promoted two years ago but has never really taken off because it was seen as difficult to use and most consumers did not see strong advantages in the service.