• PC World
• »Software
• »Operating Systems

The hype about Linux's potential as a desktop operating system started years ago. But the operating system, which has a had a stronghold in the server arena for a number of years, may not be on its way to a desktop near you.

User-friendly interfaces are finally a reality, but troubles faced by some Linux companies have led observers to question whether it will ever truly compete with Windows for desktop dollars.

Loki Software, a company that ports video games to Linux, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection two weeks ago. Eazel, a company that had planned to create a new interface for Linux and had generated a good amount of buzz due to the inclusion of a number of the original Mac OS designers on its team, dissolved in May.

In the face of user apathy, Dell Computer quietly decided to stop offering Linux as an operating system choice on its build-to-order systems.

These developments have raised questions about the viability and future of Linux on the desktop.

A Solid Future?

Loki, which has ported such hit PC games to Linux as Quake III Arena, Railroad Tycoon 2, and Deus Ex, filed for bankruptcy protection after taking on more debt than the 3-year-old company could manage, says Scott Draeker, president of Loki. The Chapter 11 filing will allow the company to restructure its debt and continue operations, Draeker says. Loki's Chapter 11 filing is, in some ways, more than just the story of a struggling company, however. After all, the company sells games--one of the major categories of consumer desktop software. If a company that sells a consumer product for Linux can't find a large enough audience to thrive, what then is the future of Linux as a widely used desktop OS?

Draeker thinks that future is solid, but is still far off.

One major challenge that Linux will face in the near term is that of retail penetration, he says. As long as Windows software continues to constitute the vast majority of what's available in stores, Linux will remain at a disadvantage, he says. However, as the operating system itself improves, so too will its commercial success, he says.

"It's too early for somebody to predict how it's going to come down," he says, noting that Linux is not yet as mature an operating system as Windows or Mac OS.

"Don't judge us until it's done and ready," Draeker says. "The Linux desktop [market] is something we've very much looking forward to."

Lacking Applications

Despite Draeker's vision, Linux's future may not reside on the desktop at all, according to Dan Kusnetzky, vice president of system software research at market research company IDC, based in Framingham, Massachusetts.

"Linux is very unlikely to become a standard consumer item on a PC," he says. Though "Linux fits very well in the specialist environment," Kusnetzky expects that Linux will never win the fight against Microsoft as a mainstream consumer operating system.

"It's fairly clear that Microsoft is going to do its best to prevent any success of Linux on the desktop," he says. Microsoft is not offering its applications on Linux and is waging a war of words against the operating system in an attempt to squash any potential success, he says.

Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer went so far as to call Linux a "cancer" in June.

Linux also faces the obstacle of user awareness and access to the OS, Kusnetzky says.

"What drives people to the selection of a desktop operating system is not the operating system," but rather users choose the application they need to do their work and then find an operating system that the program runs on, he says.

Though "almost every major [Windows] application has an analog that runs on Linux," consumers either don't know about them or don't seek them out, he says. As a result, offerings like Dell's fail, he says.

Other analysts agree.

Considering Other Options

"Some really interesting stuff is happening with Linux, [but] almost none of it is on the desktop," says Charles King, senior analyst at the Sageza Group (formerly Zona Research). Rather, King feels Linux's future lies in servers and other markets.

As the operating system is more complex than what the average computer user wants, Linux on the desktop "doesn't seem to be going anywhere--at least not in the United States," King says, noting that Linux has found more success on desktops in Europe and Asia.

Because of this uphill battle for awareness and ease of use, Linux companies and developers are looking to other markets, Kusnetzky says.

While vendors are happy to make desktop sales, "they're kind of skipping over the attack on the desktop," he says. "My sense is that the Linux community is focused heavily on Web applications and Web services."

Linux will likely be the operating system that powers the computers that run a new breed of smart cell phones, handhelds, and appliances that receive information, applications, and other services from over the Internet, Kusnetzky says. This transition to Internet-oriented computing has started on desktop PCs that access material through Web browsers, but eventually desktop systems may be replaced by smart, small devices, he says.

Away From the Desktop

"Those devices are the target of the Linux community, not the desktop PC," he says. Though Linux will run the servers these devices contact, the devices themselves could also run Linux, he says.

Rather than trying to beat Microsoft at its own game, "they've taken on a different task, one that they have a pretty strong chance of winning, most of the time," Kusnetzky says.

Sageza's King also sees a potentially strong future for Linux in markets it has yet to tap into, such as manufacturing and the entertainment industry. One major Linux backer, IBM, has heavily touted Linux's potential for animation, video, and other entertainment industry applications, announcing its Linux Digital Solution Studio offering last week. King also expects that Linux will see a lot of growth as a replacement for Unix systems and applications.

King agrees with Kusnetzky that devices and appliances will be another source of strength for Linux.

"Linux in the embedded space makes a lot of sense," he says.

Regardless of where its future lies, however, Linux will continue to be present and important, he says. "I don't see Linux going anywhere any time soon," King says.

One of the places it won't be going any time soon, it seems, is to consumers' desktops.