If IBM Buys Sun, Will Solaris Die?

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The high-stakes, but still under-the covers battle by IBM to take over Sun Microsystems Inc. is still in play, but IBM may be rethinking what it is willing to pay for the enterprise vendor.

The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources, reported that IBM has dropped its offer to US$9 to $10 a share, below its previously discussed price of $10 to $11.

What may be affecting IBM's offer is the potential delay due to regulatory oversight that the deal may bring.

If IBM takes control of Sun, it also gains much of the Unix server market. IBM has more than a 37% share of Unix servers, and Sun, at No. 2, has just over 28% of the market, according to IDC.

Unix servers are heavily used in the high end of the market, where IBM is already strong, thanks to its mainframe business, and that is just one area that could prompt antitrust regulators to examine this deal.

The decision will also have major implication for users. Both companies have been in a lock-down about what a merger might mean and what technologies might live and die, but a merger could mean bad news for Sun's Solaris operating system, according to Paul Otellini, the president and CEO of Intel.

At a recent company question-and-answer session, a transcript of which was filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Otellini warned that Solaris and Sparc are "likely to see EOLs over time through the IBM acquisition," he said. EOLs stands for end of life.

Otellini said he saw no strategic reason for IBM to maintain Solaris and its Sparc processors "except to attempt to convert the very large Sun Sparc Solaris base to power" IBM. "I think that would be their most likely strategy as part of this," he said.

Intel has reason to be concerned about Solaris -- the company has a lot invested in the operating systems, said Herb Hinstroff, Sun's director of data center software business management.

Intel has "very large teams" that "are spending a whole lot of energy on Solaris," Hinstroff said in an interview this week. Intel is the No. 2 contributor - after Sun itself - to the Solaris code base, he said.

Hinstroff noted that during the same session, Otellini also indicated that he wanted to see Sun remain independent. Otellini's transcribed words on that point: "I'd rather have Sun be independent I guess."

This story, "If IBM Buys Sun, Will Solaris Die?" was originally published by Computerworld.

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