Are iPad Skeptics as Wrong as iPhone Naysayers Were?

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Allen Stern, CenterNetworks, “ Three Reasons Why the iPhone Won’t Be as Mega as Some Think ,” January 9th, 2007:

Reason 1 – Price

The entry-model is $500, the mega-model is $600. This is not an iPod at $249. Can the average American (you know the ones who own an iPod) afford this? I think not. I am sure there will be some incentives to switch but overall the price will be a barrier to entry. But not to the early adopter crowd. Walk down 43rd street in Manhattan from 5th ave to 6th ave. Ask every person with an iPod if they will get this device. I bet maybe 3% will say yes, and thats a very aggressive figure.

Reason 2 – Locked to Cingular

I am a Cingular customer. How many are not? Will you switch to get this phone? Some will, many won’t. Assuming it is GSM, I am sure someone will hack an unlock code but many won’t know how. What about those who recently signed deals with the other carriers? Will they spend the $200 or so to break their contracts? Doubt it! I can’t wait to read the posts on Consumerist.. they will go something like this “my wireless provider won’t let me out for free because I want an iPhone.”

Reason 3 – Data Rate Plans

I wrote about this last week with the MySpace deal. The data rate plans will kill this phone. I hope Cingular gets their act together and becomes an industry leader with regards to data pricing but today it is absolute crap. This device will use a lot of data when using the Cingular network (I understand it gets WiFi but that’s not available free everywhere!). Can the average American afford $600 for a device and then another $30ish over their normal rate plan for some data? Nope.

Harry says: Allen Stern is not only not predicting that the iPad will be a bomb, he’s saying it’ll be a hit, and that he wants one.

Philip Greenspun, “ Apple iPhone ,” January 9th, 2007:

Apple introduces its first phone today. It is a bit tough to tell from looking at Apple’s Web site, but it appears that this is yet another smartphone that is not a flip-phone. In other words, if it brushes up against something in your pocket it will make or answer unwanted calls. Basically all Japanese phones are flip-phones and it baffles me as to how American consumers are denied the simple interface of “open to make or answer a call; flip closed to hang up”.

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