SLIDESHOW

I'll Take That Bet: Sure Things in Tech

What's more likely: Reliable Wi-Fi at a conference or the real Kim Kardashian follows you on Twitter? Here are the odds of tech life, from the long shots to the sure bets.

By Thomas Wailgum, CIO |

Wi-Fi Fail at Conferences

At an IT conference, the odds that a conference hall or hotel's wireless network will go down: Even. (Just ask Steve Jobs about his problematic WWDC 2010 presentation.)

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Photo: ars technica

Synergistic Relations

Chances that a tech vendor CEO will say the word "synergy" when announcing a new partnership: 1 in 2. (Odds that she thinks it'll actually save her company: 1 in 900.)

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An Evil Search Engine Company?

During the next 20 years, the odds that Google (GOOG) will actually do some evil stuff: 1 in 2.

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The Rich Get Richer

This year, the odds that Larry Ellison will add another billion to his net worth: 1 in 4. (That he will actually notice: 1 in 15,000.)

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She Ain't Into You

Chances that that's the real "Kim Kardashian" following you on Twitter: 1 in 1,000,000. Chances that you just got a virus by following her back: Even.

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Enter at Your Own Risk

Odds that your company's ERP upgrade will come in on time and on budget, and all business stakeholders will be pleased with the new functionality: 1 in 757,000. (Odds that the "f" word-"fail"-will be associated with the project: 1 in 3.)

Photo: Chris Daniel / flickr

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Don't Bother Calling

The odds that Apple's public relations department will return a journalist's call or e-mail inquiry: 1 in 622,000,000. (If you're the New York Times' David Pogue: 1 in 3.)

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Sleeping Beauties

The odds that the PowerPoint presentation that your CFO is about to deliver will have fewer than 40 slides: 1 in 400. (Odds you'll fall asleep during: 1 in 2.)

Photo: drewleavy / flickr (top); kurafire / flickr

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Who Cares About Cell Phones, Anyway?

Odds that Microsoft's (MSFT) $500 million investment in Windows 7 mobile will topple entrenched competition: 1 in 50,000. (Chances that Microsoft execs kick themselves daily for not buying RIM a long time ago: 1 in 3.)

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(Really) Early Retirement

A 41-year-old CIO at a Fortune 1000 suddenly "retires" while rumors swirl about a major IT meltdown. Odds that he's actually "retiring to spend more time with family and/or on the golf course" (1 in 10,000); that he'll ever work again in IT (1 in 3); that he's secretly ecstatic to be free from "the grind" (Even).

Photo: knox cop / flickr

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Lost . . . And Found?

Odds that your lost BlackBerry/iPhone/Droid will be returned to you-unused and unharmed-by a Good Samaritan: 1 in 7. (Odds that you wish you had remembered to turn on password security: Even.)

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It's Almost Beyond Description!

Odds that a tech press release announcing a new product will use the terms "industry leading," "robust solution" and/or "cloud-ready": Even. (That anyone will read the entire release: 1 in 750,000.)

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