So I’ll give myself a score of 20 percent for last year. But this year will be different–I’ve gone for some safer bets this time. My picks for 2010 include Websites, Web services, and mobile sites; since so many sites and services now run on desktops and on mobile platforms, it seems pointless to make a distinction. I did not, however, select any mobile apps, which I still consider a different category. With that in mind, here are the sites and services that I think have a decent shot of leaping into the limelight during 2010.
1. Fancast Xfinity TV
I’ve been waiting for Comcast to get its game on with this product, simply because the company is well positioned with content owners (studios and the like) to put out a lot of Web video–all searchable and on demand. Fancast Xfinity TV could evolve into the place on the Web where you have the best chance of finding something to watch when you don’t know exactly what you want to watch.
Early tests of the new service show a dearth of searchable content (Comcast had to get permission from each and every content partner to include their shows in the service), and that it’s a little tough to use, but I expect those problems to go away — the first one quickly, the second one gradually.
2. Bing
After Bing’s release the site quickly captured a sizable share of Web searches, becoming a legitimate competitor to Google. Though Google is still far ahead with better than 70 percent of all searches, Bing’s share continues to rise: Today, Bing gets about 10 percent of Web searches.
I believe Bing’s star is still rising. This year, look for Bing to make a serious run at Google in Web search. Remember, too, that Microsoft Office 2010 will be offering Web-based components at Windows Live, which will draw a lot of users–and many of them will be doing searches.
3. Android Market
All of that adds up to one thing: a whole lot of people looking for a whole lot of apps for their Android phones. For the most part they’ll get their apps at the Android Market. The Market currently provides only about 20,000 apps, far less than the iPhone store’s 85,000 offerings, but that too will change, fast.
4. Grooveshark
Too good to be true? At first Grooveshark’s business model sounded fishy to me–it seemed like blood in the water for the sharks who work in the legal departments of the record labels. (How many fish gags can I fit in here?) But Grooveshark offers some tempting bait for the labels, too: If you hear a stream you like, you can easily buy it from iTunes or Amazon in higher sound quality than that of the free streaming song (labels profit). And in theory, the social networking aspect of Grooveshark keeps the conversation about music going, and promotes more song sales (labels profit).
The wild card for Grooveshark this year will be the much-hyped Europe-only music site Spotify. Offering roughly the same service as Grooveshark (but with more music and more members), Spotify is now figuring out how to launch in the United States without getting sued back across the pond by the U.S. labels. (The music industry is extra-sensitive about the U.S. market, because that’s where the labels make most of their money.) If Spotify debuts, intact, in the United States, Grooveshark may remain a small fish. But I believe that the U.S. version of Spotify will have been so compromised by the lawyers that music lovers will stay away in droves.
5. Google Voice
The stars are aligning for Google Voice. Google recently purchased Gizmo5, a VoIP service provider that allows users to make free or inexpensive VoIP calls from their mobile phones. And the software might just run on a mobile phone whose insides are all Google: The rumored Google Phone will be unlocked, so it can work on any cellular network, but it will use VoIP whenever possible. Instead of a carrier subsidizing the cost, Google could subsidize it in exchange for the right to display ads on the device. Consumers would then have an alternative to signing an expensive two-year contract with one of the four major U.S. wireless service providers.
This is all speculation right now, but such a result is just the kind of total market disruption that Google seeks, and is good at. Google is obviously developing and acquiring technology for entry into the voice business; it only remains to be seen how dramatic Google’s entrance will be. Regardless, Google Voice will be the engine powering it.
6. Justin.tv
I didn’t understand the immediate cool factor of Justin.tv until a couple of weekends ago, when I went to the site to watch a live sporting event that wasn’t broadcast on local TV. Somebody on the other side of the country was streaming it directly from their cable TV to Justin.tv, and in high definition. The site even puts a chat window right next to the video so that you can talk trash about the game with other fans while you watch. I watched and chatted for about 3 hours that day, and I had a blast.
Judging by the numbers of people watching with me that day, and the thousands more watching other streams, I think Justin.tv will have a big 2010. Of course content owners aren’t any too happy about Justin users streaming premium content live on the internet. The feds recently held a hearing on the subject. And Justin is now working with content owners (like Fox) to assuage concerns, but some have observed that Justin isn’t falling all over itself to ban such live TV streams. Whether or not Justin is forced into such a ban will say a lot about the site’s future.
7. Clicker
Users need a good central directory to bring it all together, and Clicker does the best job I’ve seen of offering exactly that. The site finds the locations of the video you want to watch, and links you directly to it.
The reach of Clicker’s search is impressive. The site has links to current and popular videos at sites like Hulu and TV.com, but you can find less-mainstream stuff, too. I punched in “Andy Griffith,” and Clicker found 125 episodes (in high quality, not YouTube) from around the Web. Lots of people will discover this site in 2010.
8. Yammer
The editors here at PCWorld–whether we’re working at home, at an event, or in the office–use Yammer as our main channel of communication during the day. We use it to tell one another what we’re working on, to discuss tech issues, to comment on what the coffee tastes like today, and lots of other things. In a short period of time, we’ve gotten used to it, and we depend on it. I suspect a lot of other businesses are doing the same thing, or will be during 2010.
9. Wikitravel.org
People have become very familiar with the wiki-style “wisdom of the crowd” concept, and, I believe, comfortable with wikis’ means of expunging faulty or unclear information. Why does this self-regulating system work? The truth is, people on the Web love to call out and correct things they see that aren’t accurate. They may do this for their own egos–who knows?–but the end result is clean, reliable information.
10. Postabon
Whether you are running the site on your home PC or on a mobile device (or as an iPhone app), Bons show up on a map of your immediate area (Postabon automatically detects your approximate location). Of course, you’ll see a few different types of Bons (food and drink deals, shopping deals, and so on), and you can choose which types show up on your map.
Finding deals feels good, and it’s fun. Postabon provides a sensible way to make it a team sport. The service is available only in New York right now, but it’s doing very well there, and I expect it to roll out to other cities quickly during 2010.
Honorable Mentions
Google Wave is an awesome product, and it may change Web communication as we know it, but not in 2010. Also keep your eye on Measy, which helps you pick the right tech product by asking you questions, as well as Seesmic, which streamlines your social media.
I encourage you to check out any of these sites that might fill a need for you. All are well thought-out and well designed. And be sure to check in this time next year to see if I’m doing victory laps or crying in my eggnog. I’m hoping that I can at least improve on my two-for-ten performance from last year.