Predicting the future ain’t easy. That’s why astrologers and fortune tellers tend to keep their forecasts as vague as possible. But in the high-stakes world of high technology, the future belongs to those who see it coming well in advance.
Of course, even the most successful tech prognosticators make their share of foolish predictions, multiplying the candidates for inclusion in this article. In any case, here are a few of my favorite forward-looking flubs of the past 65 years.
Foolish Tech Prediction 1
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943
After all, when IBM’s Thomas Watson said “computer,” he meant “vacuum-tube-powered adding machine that’s as big as a house.” It’s fair to say that few people ever wanted one of those, regardless of the size of their desk.
(IBM did stay in the business, of course. For details, see our retrospective, “The IBM Personal Computer’s 25th Anniversary.”)
Foolish Tech Prediction 2
“Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946
Foolish Tech Prediction 3
“Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years.”
Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company, 1955
Of course, Lewyt’s vision has yet to come true, and it likely won’t until well after nuclear reactors are enlisted to power all of the terminator robots in our post-SkyNet future.
(Interested in robots? Take a look at “The Robots of 2008” for a video appreciation of the coolest and most innovative of Gort’s great-great-grandchildren.)
Foolish Tech Prediction 4
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977
(The MITS Altair 8800 pictured above is one of “The Most Collectible PCs of All Time.”)
Foolish Tech Prediction 5
“Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet’s continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”
Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995
To his credit, Metcalfe made good on that promise in 1999 during his keynote speech at the International World Wide Web Conference, where he blended up a copy of his printed column with some liquid and drank it down before a crowd of onlookers.
Foolish Tech Predition 6
“Apple is already dead.”
Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft CTO, 1997
Who could have predicted that, a little more than a decade later, that same company would be steadily increasing its share of the PC market while utterly dominating the digital music business and rapidly overtaking the field in the smart phone market?
Foolish Tech Predition 7
“Two years from now, spam will be solved.”
Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004
So, uh, good guess, Bill. Glad that’s been taken care of.
Other light reading we recommend:
Top 10 Tech Embarrassments You’ll Want to Avoid
Say Cheese: 12 Photos That Should Never Have Been Posted Online